People Are Forgetful...

Its amazing how property prices in Singapore have moved up so quickly so fast ever since the last crisis caused by a property bubble bursting in US. Guess people are forgetful. People have forgotten how a $980,000 property bought in 1997 is valued only at $450,000 in 2003. 

Monthly repayments for home is affordable now because the crisis since 2008 is not fully resolved. Too much  money have been spent on resuscitating the economy to risk another collapse and most government is wary about rising interest rates too fast too soon. This has driven cheap money into the economy giving people the ability to buy more expensive houses, driving up the demand. Of course this always brings out the emotions in people and making them blind to the fact that property is still an asset and there is a possibility of prices going down.

With the cooling measures just introduced, it does not have much effect on the market. People seem to be still wanting more exposure into property.. its probably because monthly repayments are still affordable. 

Lets take for example, Buying a property that cost $1 million. Lets say being a first owner, you get to purchase your property with a 80% loan. The bank lends you $800,000. Your monthly repayment based on an interest rate of 1.5% for a 30 years term is estimated to be about $2,757.

An increase of 0.25% in the loan interest rate will move the repayment up to estimated $2.849. Bring the interest rate up to the point where it was in 2007 where lowest interest rate is probably 3%, monthly repayment estimated about $3,364 (3% is only for first year then)

This is for first timers, I do not even want to mention for those who buying second property having shorter repayment terms and higher duties. 

Inevitably when the interest moves up there will be less people being able to afford houses thus driving down demand thus bringing down the property prices, thus causing people to panic sell, thus having fire sales when people cannot pay up (we hope there is less fire sale compared to 2003), unless of course the government sticks to the promise of 6.9 million population which so many property owning Singaporeans are so against....

So when will interest rates move up? Its when economies are doing well, inflation is increasing, to cool an overheated economy governments increase interest rates as one of the strategies. When interest goes up, cheap money is taken out of the economy, causing less spending bringing down inflation. When this is happening which asset class is going up? Equities! Which asset class is slowing going down, property! So doesn't diversification make sense? Then again this is in theory, but again I maintain that diversification is the way to go. 

I just can only hope that what happened in 2003 does not happen again... then again people are forgetful...